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How the E-commerce Industry will transform due to the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020.


Overview


  • The Indian E-commerce industry has been directly influencing the micro, small & medium enterprises (MSME) in India by providing finance, development, and advancement of technology, and training as well as employment generation.


  • As per recent e-commerce industry reports and analysis, the market is estimated to reach $200 billion by 2028 from $30 billion in 2018. The 84% rise in smartphone usage by customers and the digitalization of the e-commerce industry, like digital payments, customer engagement, digital advertisements, and etc have encouraged the e-commerce sector to grow rapidly. Online penetration of retail is anticipated to touch 10.7% by 2024, versus 4.7% in 2019. Online shoppers in India touched 120 million in 2018 and are assumed to reach 220 million by 2025.


Source: Emarketer.com


  • Internet usage in India grew from 4% in 2007 to 54.29% in 2019, registering a CAGR of 24%. The number of internet users in India is foreseen to grow from 718.74 million in 2019 to 829 million by 2021. The growth in the E-commerce sector has increased demand for job opportunities and tax collection by ex-chequers, and provide a better quality of products and services to the customer in the long-run.


  • The E-retail market is assumed to sustain its strong growth - it registered a CAGR of over 35% to reach Rs 1.8 trillion in 2020. By 2024, India’s e-commerce will reach US$ 99 billion, growing at a 27% CAGR over 2019-24, with grocery and fashion being the primary contributor.


The market size of Indian E-commerce


  • As per a report by Bain and Co., By 2025 India’s e-commerce market is estimated to reach a $100 to 120 billion in gross merchandise value (GMV) and 300 to 350 million shoppers. At present, the e-commerce segment in India values for 3.4% of the overall retail market with 100 to 110 million users, and an online GMV of around $30 billion.


  • The usage of smartphones and easy access to the internet are the two primary reasons for the Indian e-commerce market to rise. The current digital transformation in India is assumed to improve India’s total number of internet users to 829 million by 2021 from 636.73 million in 2019.


Source: Forresterforecast

  • As per Goldman Sach’s review, due to the online penetration of the retail market, India's e-commerce industry is estimated to reach $99 billion which is more than double of 4.7% in 2019 according to of e-commerce markets globally.


  • In 2018 the sales of the online retail market in India are assumed to improve 31% accompanied by Flipkart, Amazon India, and Paytm Mall. The Indian e-commerce market can be classified into online travel, online retail, online financial services, online matrimony and classified, and other online services segments.


  • The online travel segment had the highest market share in 2019. Some of the key players in this segment include MakeMyTrip, Goibibo, IRCTC, Cleartrip, and Yatra.com.By 2024, the online retail market is anticipated to dominate the Indian e-commerce market and reach a value of INR 4,289.64 billion, developing at a CAGR of ~20.22%.


Source: TOI

  • On the other hand, the rising demand for international brands, especially for fashion has also increased the e-commerce market in India. Companies such as Amazon, Flipkart, Myntra, and Snapdeal are some of the major players. The online financial services market in India is anticipated to be the fastest-growing segment, increasing at a CAGR of ~33.55%.


  • Furthermore, lucrative discounts, free coupons, and cashback proposed by companies like Paytm, Google Pay, Mobikwik and PhonePe have drawn more consumers to use digital financial services for bill payments.


Source: Emarketer

  • According to a report by Deloitte India and Retail Association of India said a fast-growing economy and robust demographics provide a positive outlook to the consumer businesses in India. All of these factors will make India the third-largest retail market in Asia and the fourth-largest in the world.


  • The Indian E-commerce market is assumed to grow to US$ 200 billion by 2026 from US$ 38.5 billion as of 2017. India’s E-commerce revenue is anticipated to grow from US$ 39 billion in 2017 to US$ 120 billion in 2020, at an annual rate of 51%, which is the highest in the world.


Impact of Covid-19 on Indian E-commerce


  • Amid the pandemic, online retailers were mostly surviving via essential goods like groceries and pantry but as the lockdown eases overtime the consumers are adjusting to the new normal.


  • As per a report by Goldman Sachs, Bigbasket and Grofers accounted for more than 80% of the market in 2019 in online grocery. Online grocery has been growing at over 50% year-on-year for the last couple of years, but the COVID-19 pandemic has moved the market into online, so the recent entry of RIL, the growth will accelerate to 81% CAGR during 2019-24. Grocery in India is $380 billion as of 2019, making up for 60% of the total Indian retail market. The market segment is forecasted to expand at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of ~18.15% to reach a value of INR 10,494.3 billion by 2024, from INR 3,550.7 billion in 2018.



Source: Globaldata

  • As per Bain & Co., they conducted a PRICE survey of 3000 households across income groups and geographies between April and June. This survey informed nearly 13% of respondents buying online for the first time, while about 40% buying more online.


  • BigBasket in the month of March 2020, declared they are unable to take new orders due to the surge in the number of online retail consumers. Hence they put restrictions on their orders. Whereas, Grofers also claimed the same.


  • However, Amazon is temporarily prioritizing its available fulfillment and logistics capacity to serve essentials such as household staples, packaged food, health care, hygiene, personal safety, and other high priority products. It is temporarily going to stop taking orders for lower-priority merchandise.



Source: Shopify

  • Amazon is offering free masks to customers at all open Amazon physical retail stores and Whole Foods Market locations nationwide. Customers ordering delivery from Prime Now, Amazon Fresh, and Whole Foods Market can select unattended delivery during checkout. Customers ordering a scheduled delivery can select front-porch delivery during checkout. Similarly while ordering from BigBasket, the customer can opt for contactless delivery and pay the amount via internet banking or card.


  • India's e-commerce market is estimated to touch $85 billion by 2024. Other e-commerce players that are anticipated to see a rapid increase for various services include Grofers, BigBasket, and Lenskart. Nearly 80% of order volume has picked up.


Top E-commerce Platforms in 2020


  • Amazon: Amazon is an American based e-commerce web portal founded by Jeff Bezos in 1994. Amazon.in is a third rank website in India based on global internet transactions and engagement.


  • Flipkart: Flipkart is an Indian based e-commerce web portal founded by Sachin Bansal and Binny Bansal in 2007. At present, Flipkart is a part of Walmart, Walmart acquired Flipkart in 2018. Flipkart.com is a sixth rank website in India based on global internet commerce and engagement.


Source: Mint

  • Myntra: Myntra is an India based e-commerce web portal founded by Mukesh Bansal and Vineet Saxena in 2007. Later, Myntra was acquired by Flipkart in 2014. Myntra.com is a 78th rank website in India based on global internet traffic and engagement.


  • Paytm: Paytm is an India based e-commerce online payment app founded by Vijay Shekhar Sharma in 2010. Paytm.com is a 122nd rank website in India based on global internet business and engagement.


  • SnapDeal: SnapDeal is an India based e-commerce web portal founded by Rohit Bansal and Kunal Bhal in 2010. Sanpdeal.com is a 159th rank website in India based on global internet traffic and engagement.


Summary


The online grocery will be the biggest growth driver for e-commerce in India. This segment is expected to progress gradually, growing 20 times over five years to reach $29 billion in size. Among the e-commerce companies in the country, the report projected that Reliance Industries Ltd (RIL) would capture half of the online grocery sales through Facebook. It regarded that RIL's venture into e-commerce and its tie-up with Facebook-owned WhatsApp to join local grocery stores with customers will be the "biggest near-term theme in India internet".







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